Queensland Galaxy: One Nation surges to 23%<


Adrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne

A Queensland Galaxy poll has One Nation surging to 23%, up 7 points since early November. One Nation’s gains have come at the expense of both major parties, with the Liberal National Party (LNP) on 33% (down 4), Labor on 31% (down 4), and the Greens steady on 8%.

While Labor maintains a steady 51-49 two party lead, the high non-major party vote makes this result a guesstimate. No fieldwork dates or sample size are given, but this poll was presumably taken between Tuesday and Thursday with a sample of 800-1000.

Of the three established parties, the Greens have been least affected by One Nation’s rise, indicating that demographics that vote Green are the least likely to swing to One Nation.

At the 1998 Queensland state election, One Nation won 11 of the 89 seats on 22.7% of the vote. If their vote in this poll were replicated at the next election, due by early 2018, One Nation would probably win a similar number of seats, and be likely to hold the balance of power.

Despite One Nation’s surge, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ratings are still positive, with 41% approval (down 3) and 37% disapproval (down 2), for a net rating of +4. However, Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls’ ratings have slumped a net 8 points to -12.

Federally and in other states, One Nation’s polling has met or exceeded their previous peaks from 1998-2001. It is no surprise that Queensland, which had the highest One Nation vote in 1998, is better for them than other states.

Whether One Nation and similar international parties continue to surge probably depends on President Trump. As I wrote here, if Trump succeeds in revitalising the industrial midwest, far right parties are likely to thrive. On the other hand, if working class people eventually decide that Trump is opposed to their economic interests, far right parties will probably decline.

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Australian Politics: 1 February 2015 – Lessons Learnt?


Australian Politics: 20 August 2013


Australian Politics: 16 July 2013


Today in Australian politics there was a stoush over butlers and pillows between the Queensland Premier Campbell Newman and Kevin Rudd. It all seems a bit too much Campbell (he started it), trying to deflect attention from his own pay rise issues I’d suggest.

For more visit:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/rudd-has-a-cushion-carrier-qld-premier/story-fni0xqi3-1226680183388

Kevin Rudd also announced the end of the carbon tax and a move towards an emissions trading scheme from July 1, 2014. Measures to cover the lost revenue were also announced.


Australian Politics: 12 July 2013


The Kevin Rudd juggernaut continues to gain momentum in the electorate, with the possibility of seat gains in Queensland.

For more visit:
ALP Look to Pick Up Queensland Seats

The scandal that just doesn’t want to away is that surrounding Peter Slipper, with thoughts that there is more to come.

For more visit:
More to Come in Slipper Scandal
Government to Pay Peter Slipper Legal Costs

There are also other issues on the political scene in Australia, including the asylum seeker merry-go-round, the National Broadband Network and more.

For more on these other issues visit:
Legality Issue Over Asylum Seeker policy
Mike Quigley Leaves NBN
CEO Departure Means Little for Most NBN Users

Queensland and the Gonski Reforms


Clive Palmer’s Melt Down Over Airport Body Scan