COVID-19 death toll estimated to reach 3,900 by next Friday, according to AI modelling

Belal Alsinglawi, Western Sydney University; Mahmoud Elkhodr, CQUniversity Australia, and Omar Mubin, Western Sydney University

The coronavirus disease COVID-19 has so far caused about 3,380 deaths, infected about 98,300 people, and is significantly impacting the economy in many countries.

We used predictive analytics, a branch of artificial intelligence (AI), to forecast how many confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths can be expected in the near future.

Our method predicts that by March 13, the virus death toll will have climbed to 3,913, and confirmed cases will reach 116,250 worldwide, based on data available up to March 5.

To develop contingency plans and hopefully head off the worst effects of the coronavirus, governments need to be able to anticipate the future course of the outbreak.

This is where predictive analytics could prove invaluable. This method involves finding trends in past data, and using these insights to forecast future events. There’s currently too few Australian cases to generate such a forecast for the country.

Number crunching

As of when this article was published, our model had predicted COVID-19 infections to an accuracy of 96%, and deaths to an accuracy of 99%. To maintain this accuracy, we have to regularly update our data as the global rate of COVID-19’s spread increases or decreases.

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Based on data available up to March 5, our model predicts that by March 31 the number of deaths worldwide will surpass 4,500 and confirmed cases will reach 150,000. However, since these projections surpass our short-term window of accuracy, they shouldn’t be considered as reliable as the figures above.

At the moment, our model is best suited for short-term forecasting. To make accurate long-term forecasts, we’ll need more historical data and a better understanding of the variables impacting COVID-19’s spread.

The more historical data we acquire, the more accurate and far-reaching our forecasts can be.

How we made our predictions

To create our simulations, we extracted coronavirus data dating back to January 22, from an online repository provided by the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering.

This time-stamped data detailed the number and locations of confirmed cases of COVID-19, including people who recovered, and those who died.

Choosing an appropriate modelling technique was integral to the reliability of our results. We used time series forecasting, a method that predicts future values based on previously observed values. This type of forecasting has proven suitable to predict future outbreaks of a disease.

We ran our simulations via Prophet (a type of time series forecasting model), and input the data using the programming language Python.

Further insight vs compromised privacy

Combining predictions generated through AI with big data, and location-based services such as GPS tracking, can provide targeted insight on the movements of people diagnosed with COVID-19.

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This information would help governments implement effective contingency plans, and prevent the virus’s spread.

We saw this happen in China, where telecommunication providers used location tracking to alert the Chinese government of the movements of people in quarantine. However, such methods raise obvious privacy issues.

Honing in on smaller areas

In our analysis, we only considered worldwide data. If localised data becomes available, we could identify which countries, cities and even suburbs are more vulnerable to COVID-19 than others.

We already know different regions are likely to experience different growth rates of COVID-19. This is because the virus’ spread is influenced by many factors, including speed of diagnoses, government response, population density, quality of public healthcare and local climate.

As the COVID-19 outbreak expands, the world’s collective response will render our model susceptible to variation. But until the virus is controlled and more is learned about it, we believe forewarned is forearmed.

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Coronavirus: How behaviour can help control the spread of COVID-19

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Correction: previously this article said the author’s model could predict COVID-19 infections to an accuracy of 96%, and deaths to an accuracy of 99%, up to one week into the future. This was incorrect and has been amended.

Belal Alsinglawi, PhD Candidate in Data Science and ICT Lecturer, Western Sydney University; Mahmoud Elkhodr, Lecturer in Information and Communication Technologies, CQUniversity Australia, and Omar Mubin, Senior Lecturer in human-centred computing & human-computer interaction, Western Sydney University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Vietnamese Authorities in Hanoi Thwart Easter Celebrations

Local officials prevent events featuring U.S. evangelist Luis Palau.

HANOI, Vietnam, April 18 (CDN) — Authorities in Vietnam prevented much-anticipated public Easter celebrations in Hanoi planned for Friday and Saturday (April 15-16) after giving a verbal promise to organizers that the events would proceed.

An interchurch organizing committee had submitted a request for permission well in advance and had made elaborate preparations for the special events featuring renowned evangelist Luis Palau.

The organizers said they were disappointed but not entirely surprised by the Communist government’s action.

“The authorities have clearly demonstrated to the world what we experience regularly – that their promises, whether verbal or written, cannot be trusted,” said one church leader who requested anonymity.

Asked to speculate on the reasons for the government’s ultimate refusal, another key church leader said, “I don’t know why, but it almost seems as if the government is deliberately damaging its own reputation.”

Shortly after 1 p.m. on Friday (April 15), after long negotiations, authorities gave verbal assent for the events to proceed, promising the required written permission would be issued imminently. The government-approved venue was the Dien Kinh My Dinh Sports Complex, a state-of-the-art indoor track and field stadium in Hanoi’s Tu Liem district. It reportedly holds 3,100 people; organizers had requested a place with considerably larger capacity.  

After receiving the verbal promise, organizers said they went directly to the sports complex hoping to begin preparing the sound and lighting systems. They were not given access.

When no written permission was forthcoming by the scheduled start at 7 p.m., organizers said they were forced to turn away many hundreds of people arriving from the provinces by chartered buses. They urged the people to return home quietly and to pray for the event scheduled for the next evening, they said.  

Very late Friday evening, the organizing committee received written permission from the Hanoi People’s Committee to hold what was to have been the second night of the event on Saturday (April 16). They immediately posted the document on Vietnam’s most popular Christian website http://www.hoithanh.com, they said.

Apparently, however, public security and city authorities quietly overrode the reluctant permission granted by Vietnam’s religion bureaucracy. Organizers told Compass that even with the official letter from the People’s Committee, several hurdles had remained. They had still needed to secure a contract from the sports complex on Saturday morning for use of the facilities, and they had yet to request the Committee for Religious Affairs for permission for Palau to speak.

Early on Saturday, Pastor Nguyen Huu Mac, president of the registered Evangelical Church of Vietnam (North), or ECVN(N), who had signed the request, went with colleagues from unregistered house churches to the sports complex to pursue the contract. When they were told that Saturday was not a work day, they went to the Tu Liem district office.

There they were stalled for several more hours by fruitless discussion. District officials eventually told them that although the sports complex was in their area of the city, it was owned and managed by another entity over which they had no control.

Finally, at 1 p.m., the manager of the sports complex arrived. He proceeded to give the organizing committee what Christian leaders described as unreasonable conditions for a contract. For instance, the manager said they could not enter the complex to prepare until 4:30 p.m. – hardly enough time for the scheduled 7 p.m. start. Organizers said he further told them that the sports complex would retain control over who and how many entered the building; he said they would not honor the tickets/invitations that had been widely distributed by the event organizers but would distribute their own and count every head.

The organizers sensed trouble.   

Faced with such government duplicity and control over their event and without enough time to set up properly, church leaders said, they unanimously decided they could not proceed with integrity. Shortly after 4 p.m., they issued an indefinite postponement notice.

Reached by Compass late Saturday Hanoi time, a Luis Palau Association spokesman reported that the evangelist had just spent significant time encouraging the tired organizers. Palau told them that the Lord would bless them for their diligence and predicted that they would soon reap a great spiritual harvest. In a few years, he said, they would look on the disappointments of this weekend as insignificant, according to the spokesman.

Despite their disappointment, church leaders took note of gains: The effort to stage the events, they said, marked unprecedented cooperation among various groups, with the ECVN(N), the only registered church based in the north, applying for the permission document on behalf of all groups. Cooperating in the organizing were northern house churches belonging to the Hanoi Christian Fellowship and southern-based house churches belonging to the Vietnam Evangelical Fellowship, as well as some smaller groups.

Together, the church leaders said, they determined not to bow to government manipulation and pressure.

“Clearly someone at the top disallowed these events and then left it to clumsy underlings to create bureaucratic obstacles,” said a long-time overseas Vietnam analyst. “Most people will see through this ruse and recognize simple lack of religious freedom.”  

In Ho Chi Minh City, similar Easter celebrations were given last-minute approval and went ahead the previous weekend with considerable response to Palau’s messages.

It is not known if or how the cancellation of the events in Hanoi will affect plans for the Evangelical Church of Vietnam, both the northern and southern entities, to include Palau in their June centennial celebrations in Danang, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City.

Permission has been long requested, but so far the government has only given general verbal approval.   

Report from Compass Direct News
http://www.compassdirect.org

Australian Territory Approves Same-Sex Civil Ceremonies

By Patrick B. Craine

CANBERRA, Australia, November 11, 2009 (LifeSiteNews.com) – The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) has legalized civil partnership ceremonies for homosexuals.

Same-sex couples in the ACT have been able to register their union since last year, but were not permitted a ceremony.

The legislature of the territory, where the nation’s parliament is located, passed the bill on Wednesday, following an amendment banning opposite-sex couples from obtaining the civil unions.  The bill was moved by the ACT’s Greens party.

The ACT’s amendment was passed so as to satisfy federal requirements that such unions not mimic marriage.

"We understand that this is not same-sex marriage," said Shane Rattenbury, the Greens member who drafted the bill.  "This legislation is another step along the road to full equality for same-sex couples in Australia, and we are delighted that the assembly has passed it today."

The federal Commonwealth Parliament, which has the power to override legislation passed in the country’s two territories, has strongly opposed same-sex "marriage," and the ACT legislature has been fighting with them for same-sex civil unions since 2006.

That year, the ACT passed legislation approving same-sex civil unions, but their attempt was struck down by then-Governor General Michael Jeffery on the advice of then-Attorney General Philip Ruddock.

The law would have effectively granted same-sex couples the same rights and benefits as married couples, simply leaving out the term "marriage."  At the time, then-Prime Minister John Howard said the ACT’s move sought to undermine the nation’s 2004 Marriage Amendment Bill, which established marriage as a union between one man and one woman, and specifically excluded same-sex "marriage."

Regarding the current bill, one member of the ACT’s legislature, Vicki Dunne, who serves as shadow attorney-general, predicted that the federal government would stop the bill.  "It is almost certain the Commonwealth will intervene," she told the Telegraph.  "It still sounds like a marriage and it still feels like a marriage and therefore it probably is a marriage."

Last year, the federal government granted new legal and financial benefits to same-sex couples by making changes to about 100 federal laws.  Nevertheless, they continued to declare their intention to uphold the true definition of marriage.

"The government believes that marriage is between a man and a woman so it won’t amend the marriage act," said Attorney-General Robert McClelland.

Australia’s Senate has now initiated an inquiry into the Marriage Amendment Bill, however, hearing arguments this week both for and against same-sex "marriage."  The submissions the committee received, totalling more than 20,000, were against same-sex "marriage" by a ratio of two to one.

This Report from LifeSiteNews.com

www.LifeSiteNews.com

Wheels of Justice Begin Turning in Orissa Violence

Six sentenced for anti-Christian rampage; tensions persist.

NEW DELHI, September 10 (CDN) — A fast-track court in Orissa state on Monday (Sept. 7) sentenced six people to four years of “rigorous imprisonment” and a fine of 2,000 rupees (US$41) each for their role in anti-Christian violence in the state’s Kandhamal district a year ago.

The court in Phulbani ordered them to remain in prison another three months if they are unable to pay the fine. Additional Sessions Judge Shobhan Kumar Das announced they were convicted of setting Christian houses on fire and engaging in unlawful assembly by defying curfew.

Following the assassination of a Hindu leader on Aug. 23, 2008, Kandhamal district was the epicenter of nearly three months of violence by Hindu extremists that killed at least 100 people and burned more than 4,500 houses and over 250 churches and 13 educational institutions; 50,000 people were displaced. Although Maoists took responsibility for the assassination, Hindu extremists blamed Christians in order to ignite large-scale violence on the minority community.

Sentenced on Monday were Kiringa Kanhar, Lasia Kanhar, Gananath Kanhar, Lankeswar Kanhar, Naresh Kanhar and Gorekh Pradhan. Police had charged 11 people, all residents of Tambasuga village, for burning the houses of Ladada Kanhar and his two sons in the same village in August of last year. The court acquitted five of them for lack of evidence.

The government has set up two fast-track courts at Phulbani, Kandhamal district to bring justice to the victims of violence. A total of 831 cases of violence have reportedly been filed.

“The police have dropped around 300 First Investigation Reports out of the 800-odd cases due to various reasons like lack of evidence,” Orissa High Court attorney Bibhu Dutta Das told Compass. 

On June 30, Fast Track Court-II had convicted and sentenced Chakra Mallick of Gochhapada for his involvement in the violence. Mallick was sentenced to four years in prison and a fine of 4,000 rupees (US$82). At the same time, 15 others were acquitted due to lack of evidence.

In addition, Fast Track Court-I had sentenced five people – Bisra Kanhar, Durbasha Kanhar, Rabi Kanhar, Gupteswar Kanhar and Naresh Kanhar of Salaguda village – to six years of prison and a fine of 6,000 rupees (US$123) each.

With the conviction of the six people on Sept. 7, the total number of convictions for the violence increased to 12, while at least 42 others have been acquitted.

Police reportedly arrested 680 persons for their alleged involvement in the violence, and 10,000 people were named in 827 cases registered during the anti-Christian rampage last August. Charge sheets have been filed in 437 cases, with investigations underway in another 354 incidents including the rape of a nun, Director General of Police Manmohan Praharaj told media.

The two Fast Track courts are expected to deliver more verdicts soon. But attorney Das told Compass that the two judges assigned to the Fast Track courts are capable of taking on more cases than they have so far; he predicted they would see an increase soon.

“We will request the [Orissa] High Court to intervene in this situation so that police can speed up investigations,” Das said.

Kandhamal District Collector Krishan Kumar said investigations had already concluded in two-thirds of all cases submitted to police, and that charge sheets had been filed.

“Ten to 12 people have already been convicted in the span of one year,” he said. “This shows that the Orissa government is very serious about justice.”

Fearful Witnesses Attorney Das told Compass that the distance between the Phulbani court and the villages of witnesses is 70 to 80 kilometers (nearly 50 miles), and that they refuse to attend hearings because they have not been provided security.

“Only after a warrant is issued by the court to the witness do they appear before the court,” he said, “for in that case the police usually accompany them to the court since it is a warrant.”

District Collector Kumar told Compass that no witnesses had filed First Information Reports asking for police protection.

“If anybody asks for protection, it will be given to them,” he said.

The state government has shut down the last of the relief camps for victims of the violence that began after the assassination of a Vishwa Hindu Parishad (World Hindu Council or VHP) leader Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati and four of his disciples at his Jalespata ashram (religious hermitage) in Kandhamal district on Aug. 23, 2008.

The last two camps at Tiangia and Mandakia had housed some 700 refugees from the violence. The government had set up 14 relief camps in Kandhamal alone to accommodate the thousands of people who came in searching for shelter; the violence eventually spread to 14 of Orissa’s 30 districts.

A relief camp in Tikabali in Kandhamal district was shut down on July 27, and when 35 families from there finally returned to their village of Bodimunda on Aug. 29, Hindu extremists attacked them at night. They damaged their tents, and fighting erupted as Christians tried to defend themselves.

“The superintendent of police of that area was informed, and the police intervened on time,” District Collector Kumar told Compass. “There were no casualties, and no one was hurt.”

Report from Compass Direct News 

Johnny Hunt expresses urgency about Great Commission

Encouraged by attendance exceeding 8,600 registered messengers on the first day of the Southern Baptist Convention annual meeting June 23 — twice as many as he expected — SBC President Johnny Hunt said there is a “sense of urgency” among the brethren, reports Baptist Press.

Hunt attributed much of the interest at this year’s meeting to his Great Commission Resurgence initiative. In a news conference following his re-election to a second term, he also addressed questions ranging from his opinion of controversial Seattle pastor Mark Driscoll to his view of Calvinism among Southern Baptists.

“I feel there’s a lot of energy in the halls,” said Hunt, pastor of Atlanta-area First Baptist Church in Woodstock. “Everybody’s talking the same talk: ‘We need this Great Commission Resurgence.’

“We are saying times have been desperate,” Hunt added. “Now I really do sense fellow Southern Baptists are saying we need to get serious.”

Asked about Driscoll, Hunt responded: “I don’t know him, never met him. A lot of young men like to follow his blogs and podcasts. It’s just been interesting.”

Referring to motions from the floor placing Driscoll and the network he founded, Acts 29, in a bad light, Hunt said, “[T]he entire premise of being a Baptist is sort of thrown under the bus when you start telling someone who they can or cannot fellowship with.” He said it is a matter that it should be left to the conscience and the priesthood of the believer.

About church methodology, Hunt said the SBC is a “great family fellowship” using varied methodologies which provide a healthy balance.

Hunt said it might be that some of the perceived tension across generations of Southern Baptists is rooted in several things, including methodology, dress and music.

Encouraged by what he said is the turnout of younger Southern Baptists, Hunt said, “[I]f we can move beyond our perceptions” and begin to “listen to heart of some of these young leaders,” Southern Baptists might be encouraged “to catch their passion.”

Hunt relayed his experience at a recent International Mission Board appointment service in Denver where 101 mostly young missionaries were sent out, with the “majority going to extremely hard and dangerous places.”

“With that type of commitment to Jesus Christ that they’re willing, many of them, to write their will before they leave with the understanding some of them will probably never return, I have a very difficult time spending my time talking about their jeans, whether hair is spiked or colored” or their musical tastes, Hunt said.

By building relationships with younger leaders, “if we see some areas of concern, at least we have earned the right to speak into them.”

On the continuing banter between Calvinists and those critical of the doctrine that attempts to describe God’s work in salvation, Hunt said the debate has raged for more than 400 years and is part of Baptist history.

“We have wonderful men and women on both sides. I think the Baptist tent is large enough for both,” he said.

Asked by a reporter if an invitation was made for President Barack Obama to address the SBC, Hunt said he knew of no such invitation.

But Hunt, the first known Native American SBC president, said, “I feel like we will have a resolution to really honor our president, especially in the context of being the first African American to be elected. We have much to celebrate in that.”

Hunt said he had ample opportunity to invite Republicans to speak, “but we felt that would send a wrong signal because we wanted to send prayer support to the new president and we are mandated to pray for our president.”

Speaking to proposed federal hate crimes legislation that some say could infringe on biblical preaching, Hunt said he was not overly worried as long as pastors “stay in the context of preaching biblical truth. And if the day comes that we would be imprisoned for the proclamation of the Gospel becoming that much of an offense, we would join about two-thirds of the rest of the planet.

“God forbid that I would travel to the Middle East to encourage those already in hostile settings while at same time being afraid to proclaim the message that I encourage,” Hunt said.

Returning to the Great Commission Resurgence, Hunt answered a question regarding media access to the meetings of the proposed GCR task force. He said media presence would be “counterproductive because we want people to be at liberty to share their heart.”

It could be “embarrassing where we’re just seeking wisdom,” Hunt added, “but we would love to have any and all of you at the meetings and as soon as it is over we’d be delighted to share what we came to by way of context.”

Hunt said he has “no desire whatsoever to touch the structure of the SBC and the truth is, I couldn’t if I wanted to. It would violate policy.” Hunt said perhaps more clarity in his early statements about the GCR document could have helped ease fears of drastic change.

Even if the GCR task force were rejected, traction already has been gained by efficiency studies at the Georgia and Florida conventions and at the Southern Baptist mission boards, Hunt said.

In responding to the first question asked at the news conference, Hunt predicted if the GCR were to pass that evening, he likely would name the members of the task force June 24 and it would include several seminary professors, a college president, an associational director of missions, pastors of churches of varied sizes spanning the country and ethnically diverse members.

“I don’t have all the names so I’d probably miss some,” Hunt said. “But I’d be quick to say it will be a very fair committee.”

Report from the Christian Telegraph

JESUS BOAT FOUND IN THE SEA OF GALILEE IN ISRAEL

In 1986, two brothers, Moshe and Yuval Lufan, found something beyond all expectations, reports Brian Nixon, special to ASSIST News Service.

According to Pastor Skip Heitzig, who has recently finished filming a documentary on the find, the brothers felt that they would discover something wonderful on that day.

And wonderful it was.

Tucked away in the northwestern shore of the Sea of Galilee, the brothers unearthed a 1st century boat, now named the “Jesus Boat.”

Heitzig explained to me in a recent interview that in 1986 there was a tremendous drought in Israel. This allowed the brothers access to deeper regions of the lake.

One of the brothers stumbled upon some wood, and after a little digging, determined that the wood was actually a boat. According to the brothers, a double rainbow revealed itself in the sky after the find.

The brothers retreated to the Kibbutz Ginasar to get help. The Antiquity Authorities were brought in. After a long, 12-day archeological excavation (the boat was kept in a preserving environment and sailed across the Galilee river), the “Jesus Boat” was put in a 7-year chemical bath (a wax paraffin, Heitzig explained) before it could be displayed in the open air.

Since the time of its unearthing, the boat has been officially dated to the 1st century. Almost 27 feet long, and over 7 feet wide, the boat was dated based upon the nails used and the construction of the hull.

Most scholars agree that the era during which the boat was built falls somewhere between 100 B.C and 100 A.D.

Archeologists state that the “Jesus Boat” is the first near-complete boat ever to be found in the Sea of Galilee, and is therefore a considerable discovery.

Though some have attempted to draw conclusions that Jesus (or His disciples) may have used the boat, the reality is that know one knows. Chances are the boat served its purpose for fishing and trade, and then when it got old; it was allowed to submerge in the lake.

Though scientists can’t determine if this exact boat was one Jesus would have sailed on, it can be said that it is representative of the boats the people of His day would have used.

Since the boat’s discovery, the Pope came to view the vessel- hoping it needed a home in the Vatican. The President came to see it, as did many other men of science and politics. For the past few years, the “Jesus Boat” has generated great interest across the world.

In as much as Heitzig finds the boat a fascinating and important archeological discovery, he also sees the boat as a picture of more than an ancient sailing craft. In the boat, Heitzig finds a parallel to the nation the boat was discovered in.

For Heitzig, the boat is a picture of Israel: a nation that was considered dead and submerged. But through His wonderful providence, God brought Israel forth in 1948. He reemerged it as a bud for a new generation, and established Israel as a nation.

In the soon to be released documentary, The Jesus Boat, Heitzig, as host, takes viewers on a journey through the discovery, preservation, and display of the boat (the boat can be seen in the Yigal Alon Museum in Kibbutz Ginasar), though Heitzig makes it a point to draw a strong parallel to the rebirth of the Nation of Israel.

According to Heitzig, “The Jesus Boat was way more than a documentary about an ancient boat. It’s really a testimony to the faithfulness of God. Through the film, we paralleled the story of a lost boat and a lost nation- Israel- both of which were “resurrected” after 2,000 years. It tells of a boat that wouldn’t stay buried in a land that couldn’t stay buried!”

“Just like the boat was buried under the shores for 2,000 years, the land of Israel was submerged – virtually not a nation – a dispersed people group. Yet against all odds, Israel re-emerged in 1948. As the prophet Ezekiel predicted, there was a re-gathering of Jews from the four corners of the world into that ancient piece of real estate. It would seem as impossible as dried bones, bleached and parched under the Middle Eastern sun, coming to life again.” (See Ezekiel 36-37).

“And yet it happened – 1948, the re-establishment of the nation. And why? Because God made promises to Abraham: ‘I’ll bless you, I’ll make you a great nation, your name will be great, I’ll bless those who bless you and curse those who curse you.’”(See Genesis 12:1-3).

Report from the Christian Telegraph

AUSTRALIA: BUSHFIRE UPDATE – Thursday 12 February 2009

The ‘Australia Unites’ Bushfire Appeal Telethon has just started in Australia on the Nine television network. The first act was Men at Work with ‘Down Under.’

ABOVE: Men at Work – ‘Down Under’

Donations can be made via 1800 811 700 or on the Red Cross web site at:

www.redcross.org.au

The Red Cross Bushfire Appeal has already raised over 55 million dollars (AU) for the victims of the bushfire disaster. If you are able to assist please do so. People outside Australia please visit the Red Cross Australia website given above. Thank you for your help – Australia thanks you.

The latest on the bushfire emergency is that weather conditions have eased greatly and the predicted hot weather for this weekend may not eventuate until later on in the week, which should allow fire-fighters to get on top of most of the fires – though it will take several weeks to put them all out.

Reports today indicate that several dozen new fires ignited today, with a major fire on the outskirts of Melbourne at Ivanhoe. The fire-fighters are desperately trying to get this fire under control. Some 30 major bushfires are still burning in Victoria.

An arsonist is now believed responsible for the major bushfire that razed Marysville and caused so many deaths. If anyone has information on any suspicious activity in the bushfire regions please contact crimestoppers on 1800 333. Two people arrested today on suspicion of arson were released without charges being laid – they were not responsible for any arson attacks.

The official death toll figure stands at 181, with a further 80 people considered missing. The death toll may yet peak beyond 300, with the possibility of entire families dying in their homes in some communities.

Police have indicated that the rumour indicating that some further 142 bodies had been recovered was false – it is not known where this rumour originated.

 

ABOVE: Australian Christian Churches Bushfire Appeal

ABOVE: Amazing images from the bushfires

ABOVE: Australian Army Bushfire Search Task Force in action

ABOVE: A YouTube Jerk!!!

AUSTRALIA: GIGANTIC SUPER-FIRE FEARED

In the midst of Australia’s worst peacetime disaster that has claimed 183 lives plus (possibly in excess of 300), left 7000 homeless, destroyed 1000 houses and countless other buildings, their is now a fear that bushfires will merge and create a gigantic super-fire that could erupt by the coming weekend into another firestorm.

Bushfires continue to rage across Victoria, with some 23 fires still regarded as out of control. Various towns are still regarded as under threat and the list of towns being threatened by the bushfires continues to grow.

Fears of a gigantic super-fire have emerged following the ignition of several new fires due to lightening strikes between two major fires in the east of Victoria. These fires have the potential to bridge the gap between the two fire fronts.

The 220 000-hectare Kilmore, Marysville and Healesville fire is now only separated by 18 kilometres from the 25 000-hectare Bunyip fire. The threat of these two major fires merging is very real given the strong winds and predicted high temperatures over the coming weekend.

BELOW: Footage of the bushfire in the Kilmore area