Labor easily wins NT election


Adrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne

At the 2012 Northern Territory election, the Country Liberal Party (CLP) won 16 of 25 seats, to 8 for Labor and 1 Independent. During a chaotic term, 4 CLP and 1 Labor members defected to sit as Independents, so the pre-election parliamentary numbers were 12 CLP, 7 Labor and 6 Independents.

At yesterday’s NT election, the ABC is calling 15 of 25 seats for Labor, 1 for the CLP and 3 for Independents, with 6 in some doubt. The ABC’s prediction is 18 Labor, 3 CLP and 4 Independents. Even if Labor loses all doubtful seats, they would still have a clear majority.

Two of the doubtful seats – Blain and Nhulunbuy – are cases where the incorrect final two candidates were selected on election night. The electoral commission will need to redo the two candidate count in those seats. Former chief minister Terry Mills, who was deposed by Adam Giles in the last term, will need a strong flow of preferences from the CLP in Blain.

Giles himself is in trouble in his own seat of Braitling, trailing Labor by 21 votes on a swing of almost 20 points. Former Labor leader Delia Lawrie is likely to hold her seat of Karama as an Independent; she leads by 51.2-48.8.

Overall primary votes were 43.1% for Labor (up 6.6), 31.7% for the CLP (down 18.9), 3.5% for the new 1 Territory Party, 2.8% for the Greens (down 0.5) and 18.9% for all Others (up 9.3). The Others were mostly Independents. The Poll Bludger has a breakdown of the votes and seats for each region.

There are still some booths that have not yet been added to counts, particularly in remote seats. However, most electorates are reporting postal counts, so it is unlikely that the CLP’s position will improve post-election, in the way the Federal Coalition’s position improved. Counting will resume tomorrow morning.

At this election, the voting system was changed to optional preferential voting; previous NT elections used compulsory preferential voting. However, this change appears to have helped Labor. In Braitling, Labor trails by 10.4% on primary votes, but leads by 0.4% after preferences. It is likely that minor party voters who were hostile to the CLP put the CLP last, while those who were better disposed to the CLP followed the CLP’s advice, and just voted “1”.

Shock NSW ReachTEL has a 50-50 tie

At the March 2015 NSW election, the Coalition won 45.6% of the primary vote, with 34.1% for Labor and 10.3% for the Greens. The Coalition won the two party vote 54.3-45.7.

The first ReachTEL poll since the election, conducted Thursday night from a sample of 1610, has the Coalition and Labor tied at 50-50. Excluding the 8.1% undecided from the primary votes gives 42.9% for the Coalition (down 2.7 since the election), 38.0% for Labor (up 3.9) and 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.6).

Opposition leader Luke Foley led Premier Mike Baird 51-49 as better Premier, but ReachTEL’s forced choice better PM/Premier question removes the lean towards the incumbent that other polls exhibit. Despite the Coalition’s slump, voters approved of the ban on greyhound racing by a 51-31 margin.

Polls in most states are very scarce outside election campaigns. The last NSW poll by a credible pollster was the November-December 2015 Newspoll, which had the Coalition ahead by 56-44. This ReachTEL implies that the gloss has come off the Coalition since then.

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Australia: Hillsong and Mark Driscoll


The link below is to an article that reports on Australia’s Hillsong Church and its invitation to Mark Driscoll for its Sydney convention later this month. Mark Driscoll was lead pastor at the Mars Hill Church in Seattle, USA.

For more visit:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3112154/Hillsong-Church-receives-backlash-inviting-disgraced-pastor-described-women-penis-homes-conference.html

Australian Politics: 23 December 2014 – Terrorism Claims Political Leader


These Australian Social Media Reactions To The #SydneySiege Are Perfect


TechCrunch

The hostage situation in Sydney’s busy city district has crossed over into day two, with the identity of the hostage taker revealed as Man Haron Monis.

The perpetrator, 49, is a self-proclaimed sheikh already pending trial and out on bail for being an accessory to murder. He still has an unconfirmed number of hostages captured inside a Lindt Cafe in Sydney. Some hostages escaped or were otherwise freed, and police have now stormed the cafe, according to the NYT.

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TechCrunch isn’t the place for breaking news on the situation, which can be found here and here. But as the world watches Sydney, we noticed a specific, and now-viral, status update from Jason Maggs. It has now been shared more than 16,000 times on Facebook, noted by FBNewswire, and we’re simply hoping to pass the powerful message along.

He wrote:

I just caught a train home…

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Sydney is showing solidarity with Muslims with the hashtag #illridewithyou


Quartz

Amid the ongoing hostage crisis in Sydney, Australia, social media is overflowing with the hashtag #illridewithyou. Meant initially as an offer to actually ride with Muslims who might feel unsafe using public transportation in the wake of the hostage situation, the hashtag has now been adopted globally as a gesture of solidarity with Muslims everywhere.

The hashtag was created when Twitter user @MichaelJames_TV shared a screenshot of a woman’s Facebook status about how she tried to comfort a Muslim woman at a train station.

Another Twitter user, @sirtessa, came up with the idea for the hashtag after retweeting the interaction.

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