What’s the ‘Indian’ variant responsible for Victoria’s outbreak and how effective are vaccines against it?

Luis Ascui/AAP

Fiona Russell, The University of Melbourne; John Hart, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, and Katherine Gibney, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and ImmunityVictoria’s seven day lockdown, which begins tonight, is an attempt to stop transmission of the quick-spreading COVID-19 B.1.617.1 variant.

Victoria’s chief health officer Brett Sutton said the reproduction number of the strain was yet to be determined, but could be five or more, meaning one person would infect five others.

B.1.617.1 is one of three so-called “Indian” SARS-CoV-2 variant sub-types. Little is known about it but it’s likely to have similar characteristics to the sub-type dominating in India and emerging in the United Kingdom at the moment, B.1.617.2.

Remind me, what’s a variant of concern?

To be classified as a variant of concern, it must pose a risk to public health over and above the original Wuhan virus. This could be due to changes in transmissibility (how easily it spreads), disease severity, its ability to evade detection by viral diagnostic tests, reduced effectiveness of treatments, or an ability to evade natural or vaccine-induced immunity.

The World Health Organization is tracking four variants of concern, which are often referred to by the country in which they emerged:

• the UK (B.1.1.7)
• South Africa (B.1.351)
• Brazil (P.1)
• Indian variant (B.1.617).

The B.1.617 variant, which was classified as a variant of concern on May 6 2021, has three subtypes – B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3 – each with small differences in their genetic make-up.

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Read more:
What’s the difference between mutations, variants and strains? A guide to COVID terminology

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What do we know about the ‘Indian’ variants?

Information about B.1.617 is emerging, but early reports indicate it spreads more easily than the original strain. Although there is limited data specifically on B.1.617.1, it is likely to behave similarly to B.1.617.2 as it is genetically similar.

Early data from the UK’s NHS Test and Trace records showed B.1.617 spreads at least as easily as the UK strain (B.1.1.7). In fact, B.1.617.2 may be twice as likely to infect another person than the UK strain, which was already more infectious than the original Wuhan virus.

The relative disease severity of B.1.617 is still under investigation, however even if it is no more severe than the original virus, increased transmission leads to more cases, more hospital admissions and more deaths.

Laboratory tests also raise the possibility that reinfection might be more common with the B.1.617 variant, but this is yet to be confirmed by real-world data and for all sub-types.

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Read more:
Why variants are most likely to blame for India’s COVID surge

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How effective are vaccines and how long do they take to kick in?

For most variants of concern, vaccines are still effective, but are often less effective than they were against the original Wuhan virus.

So far, there are no data on how effective any of the COVID-19 vaccines are against B.1.617.1.

B.1.617.2 has one more mutation than B.1.617.1, so they are genetically similar. Therefore the vaccine effectiveness against B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 is likely be similar, but this is not known yet.

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Data from the UK (non-peer reviewed) on vaccine effectiveness against the B.1.617.2 variant has recently been released. It found:

• both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are 33% effective against symptomatic disease (COVID-19 symptoms such as fever, dry cough and tiredness) three weeks after the first dose
• Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against symptomatic disease two weeks after the second dose
• AstraZeneca vaccine is 60% effective against symptomatic disease two weeks after the second dose.

The difference in effectiveness between the vaccines after two doses may be due to AstraZeneca taking longer to reach peak protection as this occurs after two weeks following the second dose.

Both vaccines are expected to provide even greater protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death than they do for symptomatic disease. As yet there are too few cases to do this analysis but this will take place over the coming weeks.

Lower vaccine effectiveness means even if you are vaccinated, you could still get infected. However, if an infection does occur, symptoms would be milder.

It’s also possible vaccination may not protect you for as long against this sub-type compared to other variants. But this is not known yet for B.1.617.1.

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Read more:
What’s the new coronavirus variant in India and how should it change their COVID response?

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Time between doses

From December 2020, the UK had been delivering the AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines with a 12-week interval between doses to provide some protection to as many people as possible.

A recent study supported this decision, finding that extending the vaccine interval from three to 12 weeks for the second dose boosted the immune response in people over 80 by 3.5 times.

However, due to the spread of the B.1.617.2 variant in the UK, the strategy was changed in mid-May to an eight-week gap in order to provide greater protection from this highly transmissible virus at an earlier opportunity.

Australia delivers the AstraZeneca vaccine with a 12-week interval, while opting for three weeks for Pfizer.

Decisions on the timing between doses must balance providing greater protection earlier, against providing some protection to the maximum number of people. It’s too early to make those changes right now for Victoria but this option should be considered if the outbreak worsens.

Australia currently has a 12-week gap between AstraZeneca doses.
Luis Ascui/Shutterstock

Should people get vaccinated?

Even though we don’t know how effective vaccines are against the B.1.617.1 sub-type, don’t delay getting vaccinated. This time our outbreak is due to B.1.617.1, but next time it could be another variant.

COVID-19 vaccines are equally effective against the original strain and B.1.1.7, and are also effective against the B.1.617.2 variant (albeit a bit lower).

During an outbreak, policymakers should also consider opportunistically increasing vaccine uptake, especially in the outbreak areas. Victoria has made progress in this area and from tomorrow all 40- to 49-year-old Victorians will be offered Pfizer.

But those responsible for the most COVID-19 transmission are aged 20 to 49 years. So vaccinating even younger Victorians – 20 to 39 year olds – would also prevent spread of the outbreak. Even if the vaccine was only 20% effective against transmission this may be a very important additional measure.

Even though there are many unknowns, it is still important to get vaccinated with the vaccine that is offered right now.

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Read more:
I’m over 50 and can now get my COVID vaccine. Is the AstraZeneca vaccine safe? Does it work? What else do I need to know?

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Fiona Russell, Senior Principal Research Fellow; paediatrician; infectious diseases epidemiologist, The University of Melbourne; John Hart, Clinical researcher, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, and Katherine Gibney, Senior research fellow, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

It would cost you 20 cents more per T-shirt to pay an Indian worker a living wage

A farmer harvests cotton in Maharashtra, India.
Shutterstock

Murray Ross Hall, The University of Queensland and Thomas Wiedmann, UNSW

If we really care about protecting the people who make the things we wear and use, we need to raise wages for workers in supply chains to above the poverty line. Our research shows that this only requires a 20 cent increase in the Australian retail price for a T-shirt made in India.

This small increase can lift wages by up to 225% in India, closing the living wage gap for the most vulnerable workers in the supply chain, such as cotton farmers. The living wage gap is the difference between a living wage and current wages.

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Read more: Explainer: what exactly is a living wage?

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The living wage is the income required for a decent standard of living for a worker and their family. It lifts the worker above the poverty line and is defined by the costs to meet basic needs such as food and shelter. It also limits the number of working hours per week required to meet these needs.

A living wage has long been advocated as a way to support vulnerable and exploited workers. About 42% of all workers globally are in insecure jobs and have no social protections, 29% remain in moderate to extreme poverty and about 25 million people are in slavery.

Many of the goods we now buy are part of global supply chains. Since the 1980s the production of labour-intensive products such as textiles and footwear has shifted to countries with low-cost labour.

Cost-cutting often impacts those with the weakest bargaining position, such as cotton farmers – cotton prices have been on a downward trend over the past decade. Without realising it, our demand for low prices can cause vulnerable workers in other countries to work for less than a living wage.

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Our research calculated the living wage gaps in India, broken down by region, gender, skill and type of employment. For instance, female workers on cotton farms in Gujarat earn 207% below the living wage. Casual female workers in Haryana have a living wage gap of about 34%.

It would take on average a 15 cent price increase on T-shirts in Australia to close the living wage gap for cotton workers in India. Adding another five cents would close the living wage gap for Indian textile workers, and also account for the increase in agent fees, which are a percentage of the production costs.

The living wage gap may be larger or smaller on particular farms or factories, but a 20 cent increase on average would be sufficient to lift all Indian workers in the garment supply chain out of poverty.

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Read more: Why the fashion industry keeps failing to fix labour exploitation

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The small cost to address poverty and climate change for producing a T-shirt in India. Murray Hall.

How we can raise the living wage

The cost to close the living wage gap in developing countries is small because wages for workers in these countries make up only a fraction of the retail price charged in countries like Australia.

Our work shows it costs about A$5.30 to produce a T-shirt in a country like India and ship it to Australia. The remaining costs embedded in a A$25 T-shirt come from warehousing, distribution and retail costs within Australia itself.

As a result, a 20 cent increase represents a less than 1% increase in the Australian retail price. It would cost only another 40 cents to cover the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. This means an ethically made T-shirt would only cost 2.5% more than current prices.

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A roadblock to implementing living wages is simply knowing the source of materials. Only about 7% of fashion companies in Australia know where all of their cotton comes from. Unless an Australian retailer specifies the source of cotton, the decision is made by the overseas textile contractor, often based on price.

Another challenge is that we need an accepted method for calculating and auditing the payment of living wages in the supply chain. The retailer needs to know how much the cotton farmer should be paid and have a system to check it has been done.

Over the past four years consumer pressure has pushed fashion companies to understand their supply chains and to consider paying living wages, but there is still a long way to go.

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Read more: What businesses can do to stamp out slavery in their supply chains

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In 2012 a group of the world’s largest ethical trade organisations formed the Global Living Wage Coalition.

This organisation has developed a manual for measuring the living wage and requiring? living wages to be paid to their producers. The producers are audited along the supply chain and in return can advertise their compliance with ethical standards. Shoppers will soon be able to look for a label – similar to the Fairtrade symbol – to know that living wages have been paid throughout the supply chain.

The famous economist John Maynard Keynes argued that consumers are not entitled to a discount at the expense of the basic needs of workers. In fact, we only need to pay a small amount more to provide a living wage and make a big difference to the world’s poorest workers.

Murray Ross Hall, PhD Candidate, School of Earth and Environmental Science, The University of Queensland and Thomas Wiedmann, Associate Professor, UNSW

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

The Indian Economy

Indian Racism

India: The Indian Financial Crisis

The link below is to an article reporting on India’s financial crisis.

For more visit:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/28/india-current-account-deficit-record-high

India: Persecution News

The link below is to an article that reports on the release of an Indian pastor after 8 years of imprisonment, having been suspected of being a Communist rebel.

For more visit:
http://www.gfa.org/samuel/

India: Evangelist Arrested for Conspiracy to Murder

The link below is to an article about Indian evangelist Kilari Anand Paul, the president and founder of Global Peace Initiative, and two others, for conspiracy to murder.

For more visit:
http://www.christiantelegraph.com/issue16357.html

India: Latest Persecution News

The following article reports on the latest persecution news out of India. There have been attacks on Christians across three Indian states.

http://www.christiantelegraph.com/issue15928.html

Cricket: Australia – Australia Defeat India 4 Zip and the Big Bash 2012 Final

What a great day for Australian Cricket, with Australia wrapping up the test series against India 4 – 0 and the hugely successful 1st season of the Twenty20 Big Bash being completed tonight, with the Sydney Sixers defeating the Perth Scorchers.

It has been a massive day of cricket, with Michael Clarke, Ricky Ponting, David Warner, Peter Siddle and Co, playing great cricket in the series win against India. Who will forget the massive triple century of Michael Clarke, the partnerships of Clarke and Ponting, the dominance of Australia’s bowling attack and the capitulation of the Indian team under relentless pressure from Australia. Both Shaun Marsh and Brad Haddin should be concerned about their immediate future in the team, with poor performances by them both throughout the series. Both Ponting and Michael Hussey silenced their critics with very solid performances in the series and David Warner has cemented his place in the team for the time being.

India however were very disappointing and several big name players should be looking at retirement – if not, they should perhaps be replaced. All the big names struggled, none more than Dravid and Laxman. Even Sachin Tendulkar struggled and at no time did it seem likely he would make his 100th international hundred.

The Big Bash Final win for the Sydney Sixers was set up right from the beginning with a brilliant first over by Brett Lee. It was a brilliant opening partnership between Moses Henriques and Steve O’Keefe that ensured the Sixers could chase down the total set by the Scorchers comfortably.

For more visit:
http://www.cricket.com.au/news-list/2012/1/28/australia-seal-whitewash

http://www.bigbash.com.au/
http://www.espncricinfo.com/big-bash-league-2011/content/story/551379.html

Two Indian Christians Languish in Saudi Prison

‘Religious police’ raid apartment; no official charges.

LOS ANGELES, March 28 (CDN) — Friends and family of two Indian Christians arrested after a prayer meeting in Saudi Arabia in January have tried in vain to secure their release.

The two Christians were incarcerated for attending the prayer meeting with other Indian nationals and accused of converting Muslims to Christianity, though the government has not produced formal charges, sources said.

Yohan Nese, 31 and Vasantha Sekhar Vara, 28, were arrested on Jan. 21 when mutaween (religious police) raided an apartment where the two had lingered after attending the prayer meeting. Religious police interrogated and beat them to the point that they suffered injuries, according to sources. During this time, religious police who were cursing at them allegedly tore up and trampled on Bibles and Christian material they had confiscated, said a source who spoke to the men.

Authorities asked them how many Christian groups and pastors there are in Saudi Arabia and Riyadh and asked their nationalities. The religious police also put pressure on the two to convert to Islam, according to sources.

The next morning, Jan. 22, authorities took the two Christians to the Religious Court in Riyadh. The court sentenced them to 45 days in prison. At 2 p.m., police filed a case at the local civil police station, according to a source who requested anonymity.

To date the Christian Indians have been in prison for 67 days. Their family and friends say they still have not been able to obtain a document with official charges but know from the prisoners that the charges are religious in nature, according to the source. At the time of their detention, the Christians were not engaging in religious activities.

On Jan. 22, 15 mutaween in civilian clothes came back to the apartment they had raided the previous day, destroyed valuable items and wrote Islamic slogans on the walls with spray paint, the source said.

Nese and Vara’s situation in prison is “horrible,” said the source. The two men are cramped in a prison cell with only enough room to stand.

“There is no place to even sit,” said the source. “Only two hours a day they are sleeping in shifts. When brother Yohan is sleeping, brother Sekhar needs to stand, and when brother Sekhar wants to sleep, brother Yohan needs to stand. They have been doing this for more than a month. I don’t know how many more days they have to continue this.”

Since the arrest, other Christians have been too frightened to meet for prayer.

One week after his arrest, Vara was able to use a phone to call his family and pastor in India. His wife, Sandhya Vara, who is expecting their first child in three months, said she has not heard from him since.

“There were no Muslims in their prayer meeting, but they are accusing them of converting Muslims into Christians,” she told Compass by phone. “We got married eight months ago, but he’s very far from me now and he’s in very much trouble, and I’m six months pregnant.”

She and his pastor in India have communicated numerous times with the Indian embassy but have received no response.

“I have been complaining to the Indian embassy,” she said. “They cannot call me or give me any information. There is no help. So many times I informed them and they cannot give any reply and cannot take any action.”

Vara had worked in Saudi Arabia for more than seven years. Last summer he came to India and got married, returning on Jan. 9 to his post in Riyadh, where he worked as a supervisor for a catering company.

“Vasantha is from my church,” said his pastor in India, Ajay Kumar Jeldi. “He is very God-fearing, good, prayerful, supporting the pastor and working for the youth.”

The morning of his arrest, Vara called Pastor Jeldi and told him he planned to go to the evening prayer meeting in Riyadh. After the meeting, Vara, Nese and four other unidentified Christians lingered at the flat where the gathering had taken place. At around 7:30 p.m. two mutaween in plainclothes and one policeman in uniform raided the apartment.

On the phone with his pastor back in India, Vara said he was in prison for religious reasons and that he had been pressured to convert to Islam, but that he had refused.

“If I have to die for my God, I will die for him here,” he told Pastor Jeldi. “God will help me.”

The pastor said that in his sole conversation with him a week after his detention, Vara requested prayers for his release.

Typically in Saudi Arabia, a foreign worker’s documents remain with the employers who sponsor them in order for them to work in the country. Saudi employers are typically the only ones who can secure their employees’ release on bail.

“Only their sponsors can bring them out,” Pastor Jeldi said. “He has the right to bring him out, and no one else has the right to go and pay the bail or anything. Only the sponsor can have that responsibility.”

Since his arrest, Vara’s employer has handed his passport to local authorities and told them he is no longer responsible for him, according to the anonymous source.

“He doesn’t want him to work in his company anymore,” said the source.

The Saudi “religious police” or Commission to Promote Virtue and Prevent Vice (CPVPV) is a government entity that includes 5,000 field officers and 10,000 employees, along with hundreds of “unofficial” volunteers who take it upon themselves to carry out the CPVPV’s mandate, according to the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom.

“Despite the fact that the CPVPV is not allowed to engage in surveillance, detain individuals for more than 24 hours, arrest individuals without police accompaniment, or carry out any kind of punishment, its members have been accused in recent years of killing, beating, whipping, detaining, and otherwise harassing individuals,” the commission stated.

In the raid, authorities confiscated anything of value in the apartment, including two musical keyboards, a guitar, two sound boxes, a sound mixer, four microphones, music stands, power extension boxes, a laptop, mobile phone chargers and a whiteboard. They also confiscated 25 Bibles and other Christian materials, the source said.

The other Indian Christians at the apartment escaped.

The anonymous source said he has informed the Embassy of India in Riyadh of their arrest numerous times.

“I have lost hope in them,” he said, “because the only thing they are always saying is that this is a religious case, so we can’t do anything.”

Pastor Jeldi said he thought someone must have complained about the group of Christian Indians who were meeting regularly, causing authorities to act.

Nearly 7 million foreigners live and work in Saudi Arabia, of which an estimated 1.5 million are Indian nationals.

Human Rights Watch has reported that Saudi Arabia systematically discriminates against migrant workers and has called for the government to “abolish the sponsorship system for migrant workers, in particular the requirement for employer consent to transfer employment and to obtain an exit visa.”

According to the U.S. Department of State’s 2010 Report on International Religious Freedom, with rare exception, expatriate workers fear government interference with their private worship. The reasons for this interference can range from the worship service being too loud, having too many people in attendance or that it occurs too often in the same place, according to the report.

Riyadh was the stage for another raid and mass arrest of Christians in early October 2010. Arab News and other press reported the arrest of 12 Filipino Christians and a French Catholic priest celebrating mass in a private apartment. There were 150 Filipinos in attendance. The employers of the 12 Christian foreign workers secured their release, and the Philippine embassy negotiated their repatriation. The Catholic priest was also released within days.

“Saudi officials do not accept that for members of some religious groups, the practice of religion requires more than an individual or a small group worshipping in private, but includes the need for religious leaders to conduct services in community with others,” stated the State Department’s religious freedom report. “Foreign religious leaders continue to be prohibited from seeking and obtaining visas to enter Saudi Arabia and minister to local religious communities.”

Report from Compass Direct News
http://www.compassdirect.org