Vital Signs: dismal wages growth makes a joke of budget forecasts



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Pay packets rose just 0.5% in the first quarter.
bradleypjohnson/Flickr, CC BY-ND

Richard Holden, UNSW

Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies. The Conversation

This week: investor loans continue to rise, unemployment ticks down, wages growth remains distressingly low, and consumers are unconvinced the budget will improve their financial situation.


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Now that Australia’s two major political parties (and the Greens) have decided that robbing banks is legitimate public policy, we return our focus to how the Australian economy is actually functioning.

ABS data released Monday showed that investor housing loans rose slightly, up 0.8% on the previous month. The really interesting figures on this front are still to come, since the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority announced tighter macro-prudential measures – especially on interest-only loans – at the end of March. There are already some anecdotal suggestions that these have started to dampen investor demand, but there is no proper evidence yet. The next round of ABS housing finance data will certainly provide some clues.

The ABS also reported this week that first quarter wage growth was distressingly low, with pay packets rising just 0.5%. That puts private-sector annual wages growth at 1.8%. The main concerns here are, of course, for workers struggling to get by and the fact that rising levels of income inequality are not being dented by robust wage growth.

Added to this, however, is the impact of low wage growth on the budget, and the economy more generally. The RBA has pointed out in recent months that around one-third of mortgage holders have less that one month’s repayment buffer. As the cost of living keeps rising, but wages don’t, people with close to no wiggle room get squeezed more and more.

Last week’s budget, and the forecast return to surplus in 2020-21, was predicated in no small part on very robust wage growth.

On budget night I wrote that these wage growth assumptions were bullish and unlikely to eventuate. 3% going to 3.75% annual wage growth looks really aggressive against a stagnating 1.8 – 1.9% (counting the public sector’s slightly stronger growth). When wage growth is lower than it has been since the mid 1990s, how can one forecast with a straight face that the growth rate will double?

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s certainly understands this. It almost grudgingly reaffirmed Australia’s AAA credit rating this week, but cast doubt on the projected return to surplus, saying “budget deficits could persist for several years, with little improvement, unless the Parliament implements more forceful fiscal policy decisions”.

Figures released Thursday showed the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.7%. This is seemingly good news, although this ABS series has been notoriously unreliable in recent times.

The workforce participation rate was steady at 64.8% – and this may be a better and more relevant measure of short-term fluctuations in employment.

There was also a continued shift to part-time employment. Total jobs were up 37,400, but people in full-time work fell by 11,600 and the number of part-time jobs was up 49,000.

Consumer confidence weakened a little in May according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index. It was down a point to 98.0 in May (recall that for indices like these 100 is the level at which optimists and pessimists are in equal supply).

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said:

Respondents’ confidence in housing and the outlook for house prices deteriorated sharply, while the assessment of the budget around the outlook for family finances was decidedly weaker.

And why wouldn’t it be? The budget contained essentially nothing to address the housing affordability crisis, further fuelling concerns that there will be a messy correction to prices.

Meanwhile, the government’s best ideas for how to grow wages and incomes were to waive a white flag about spending restraint, whine about how the Senate won’t pass their legislation (“this is a Senate tax”, said the treasurer on budget day), and launch a populist attack on our five largest banks.

And that attack – the bank tax – will be passed on to consumers, just like the last increase in regulatory capital required by APRA.

So the government raised the taxes of most Australians and blamed the cross-bench. That doesn’t fill me with confidence. And it seems I am not alone.

Richard Holden, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Shifting the tax burden to middle-income earners will undermine jobs and growth


Patricia Apps, University of Sydney

The government’s idea of raising the Medicare levy, while also removing the 2% budget deficit levy on incomes above A$180,000, is less “transformational” and more signature Liberal policy. It shifts the tax burden towards middle income earners, as opposed to Labor’s plan to direct higher tax rates towards higher income earners. The Conversation

Rather than introducing a simple flat rate rise of 0.5% in the marginal tax rate across all taxpayers, the government has chosen to increase the Medicare levy. The reason lies in the fact that the levy contains the equivalent of a low-income tax offset due to the phasing out of the low-income exemption.

For example, in the current financial year, the thresholds for the phasing out of the Medicare levy exemption is A$21,665 for singles and A$36,541 (plus A$3,356 for each dependent child/student) for families. At these thresholds, tax rates rise by the rate of the withdrawal of the exemption, which works out to be 8% (calculated as 10% less the 2% Medicare levy rate).

In the case of a two-child family, this means an 8% rise in the marginal tax rate at an income from A$43,253, to an upper income limit of A$51,803. If a Medicare levy increase of 0.5% were introduced in the current tax year, the upper income limit for the higher marginal tax rate would rise to A$54,066.

In combining a rise in the Medicare levy with the removal of the budget deficit levy, the government is therefore proposing a rise in marginal tax rates across a wide band of middle incomes and a marginal tax rate cut for the top.

This direction of tax reform is a continuation of the incremental shift in the overall tax burden towards middle income earners over recent decades. And because the threshold for the Medicare levy exemption is based on family income, the reform will reinforce the move towards higher effective tax rates on low income second earners in a family.

This shift in the tax burden from top to middle income earners, and to middle income families, will undermine aggregate demand and, in turn, “jobs and growth” in the future.

In contrast to the government’s policy, Labor’s policy limits the rise in the Medicare levy to incomes above the top two bracket points and retains the budget deficit levy. Raising taxes on top incomes is not only a fairer policy, but a more efficient one in the conventional economic sense.

The impact of taxes on hours worked declines as earnings get higher, and has close to no effect on the hours worked by those with top incomes. And by avoiding higher taxes on second family earners, Labor’s policy should have a less negative effect on second earner hours of work and therefore the tax base.

The government’s and Labor’s tax reforms therefore represent very different policies.

Patricia Apps, Professor of Public Economics, Faculty of Law, University of Sydney

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Growth of Muslim Populations in Europe Map


TIME

[time-interactive id=europe_radical_islam]

The recent terrorist attacks in Paris have brought new attention to the small number of European Muslims who turn to violent extremism. Fears center around the number of Europeans who have fought in Iraq and Syria and could return to the continent. Amid tensions over terrorism and intolerance in France, the Muslim population there is projected to grow steadily in the coming years in comparison to non-Muslim populations and in many other European counties. Demographic changes, including lower birthrates for non-Muslim Europeans, are contributing to the changing face of Europe’s religious and ethnic make-up. The above map shows historical data and projections for the growth of Muslim populations in Europe in 2030.

Methodology
Population estimates from Pew Research Religion and Public Life Project. According to the methodology in the organization’s report, the 1990 figure for France and several other countries maybe be artificially low. Estimates for the number…

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The Continued Growth of Pentecostalism


The link below is to an article that takes a look at the continued growth of Pentecostalism.

For more visit:
http://www.christianitytoday.com/edstetzer/2014/november/why-are-pentecostals-growing.html

Growth in Christian Persecution Worldwide


The link below is to an article reporting on the growth of persecution around the world.

For more visit:
http://www.commdiginews.com/world-news/worldwide-christian-persecution-is-increasing-and-is-largely-ignored-21687/

The need for speed: Why broadband network upgrades are critical to economic growth


Gigaom

Much like the debate over whether raising the US federal debt ceiling is the right choice for the country, the networking industry all too regularly engages in a debate about whether the need for faster data connections is real. The significant role of broadband as an economic driver deserves to be elevated to a similar level of attention as progress and innovation are stifled when network capacity is constrained, which doesn’t bode well for consumers, businesses, research communities and the economy on the whole.

High-speed, high-capacity networks are critical to our future because they power the world’s Internet and digital economy. For the most part, networks based on 100G technology have become mainstream to address current demands – and this represents a giant leap forward from traditional network architectures and scale. However, it won’t be long before we need to go beyond 100G and even 400G and start to build…

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