Trump’s withdrawal from Iran deal could fracture alliances and jeopardise North Korea negotiations

Tony Walker, La Trobe University

President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to withdraw from the multilateral agreement to restrain Iran’s nuclear program will inevitably have far-reaching consequences, including the further destabilisation of the Middle East.

More immediately, it risks fracturing a Western alliance that has provided the cornerstone of global security since the end of the second world war.

In a joint statement, the leaders of France, Germany and Britain raised the possibility of the US being in breach of a United Nations Security Council resolution endorsing the deal. The resolution remained the “binding international legal framework for the resolution of the dispute,” Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Theresa May said.

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Why Trump’s decertification of the Iran nuclear deal may prove a costly mistake

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As such, France, Germany and Britain said they would still adhere to the agreement. The other participants – Russia and China – would also be unlikely to abandon the deal. And Iran itself, in a measured reaction to the Trump announcement, said it, too, would stick with the agreement.

This means the Trump administration risks finding itself further isolated from the international community, following his decision to also pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Climate Change accords.

Possible ramifications

It is hard to exaggerate the many negative outcomes that may well flow from the decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, including an escalation of tensions between Iran and US clients in the Middle East. In fact, heightened tensions across the Middle East and an intensification of a regional arms race would seem to be almost inevitable.

Following through on his threats during his 2016 presidential election campaign to tear up the Iran deal, Trump could hardly have been more explicit in his rejection of a foreign policy centrepiece of his predecessor’s tenure in his announcement on Tuesday.

The fact is, this was a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made. It didn’t bring calm, it didn’t bring peace, and it never will.

What this announcement confirms – if confirmation is even necessary – is that the US leader has unshackled himself from the moderating influences of advisers who have been shoved out of his national security team in recent weeks. These include Harold McMaster, his former national security adviser, and former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who had both argued strenuously against a withdrawal from the Iran deal.

Trump is now in the hands of what is one of the more bellicose teams of advisers assembled by an American president in recent memory. Where this leaves James Mattis, Trump’s defence secretary is unclear. Mattis has called the verification element of the Iran deal “robust” and has been opposed to actions that would undermine an existing treaty.

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Read more:
Donald Trump backs out of Iran nuclear deal: now what?

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Understandably, former President Barack Obama and his secretary of state, John Kerry, have expressed dismay over an unravelling of an agreement that took years to negotiate with the aim of forestalling Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapons.

In a rare rebuke of Trump, Obama said the decision would make the world less safe. He described it as a “losing choice between a nuclear-armed Iran or another war in the Middle East.”

Understandably – as one of the architects of the agreement – Kerry also expressed his dismay. “Instead of building on unprecedented nonproliferation verification measures, this decision risks throwing them away and dragging the world back to the brink we faced a few years ago,” he said.

Possible impact on business

In addition to tearing up the deal, Trump announced a re-imposition – and strengthening – of sanctions against Iran. These will be phased in over 90-day and 180-day periods. What is not clear is what impact these sanctions will have on international companies doing business in Iran.

Under a previous sanctions regime, companies risked being shut out of the US economy if they invested in – or traded with – Iran.

An interpretation of just what is implied for international business will be an early test of America’s ability to make the sanctions stick. This is sure to get messy.

Already, US companies such as Boeing, which had negotiated US$20 billion in aircraft sales to Iran, are finding such business is now in jeopardy.

Further complicating the picture is Trump’s proposed face-to-face meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to put an end to Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

Kim may well ask himself what value might be placed on negotiations with Trump. Under these circumstances, neither side would be likely to invest much trust in one another.

Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

After Fatwa, Pastor in Pakistan Beaten with Bricks

Convert, a former fighter in Afghanistan, had protested Islamic attack.

SARGODHA, Pakistan, November 5 (CDN) — Muslim extremists in Islamabad on Monday (Nov. 1) beat with bricks and hockey sticks a Christian clergyman who is the subject of a fatwa demanding his death.  

The Rev. Dr. Suleman Nasri Khan, a former fighter in Afghanistan before his conversion to Christianity in 2000, suffered a serious head injury, a hairline fracture in his arm and a broken bone in his left ankle in the assault by 10 Muslim extremists; he was able to identify two of them as Allama Atta-Ullah Attari and Allama Masaud Hussain.

The attack in Chashma, near Iqbal Town in Islamabad, followed Islamic scholar Allama Nawazish Ali’s Oct. 25th fatwa (religious ruling) to kill Khan, pastor of Power of the Healing God’s Church in the Kalupura area of Gujrat city. A mufti (Islamic scholar) and member of Dawat-e-Islami, which organizes studies of the Quran and Sunnah (sayings and deeds of Muhammad), Ali is authorized to issue fatwas.

Khan, 34, had relocated to a rented apartment in Islamabad after fleeing his home in Gujrat because of death threats against him and his family, he said. The fatwa, a religious order to be obeyed by all Muslims, was issued after Khan protested anti-Christian violence in Kalupura last month.

Muslim extremists who learned of his conversion had first attacked Khan in 2008 – killing his first child, 3-month old Sana Nasri Khan. He and wife Aster Nasri Khan escaped.

“During the Kalupura Christian colony attacks, once again it came into the attention of Muslim men that I was a converted Christian who had recanted Islam, deemed as humiliation of Islam by them,” Khan said.  

In this week’s attack, Khan also sustained minor rib injuries and several minor cuts and bruises. He said the Muslim radicals pelted him with stones and bricks while others kicked him in the chest and stomach. They also tried to force him to recite Islam’s creed for conversion; he refused.

On Monday night (Nov. 1) Khan had gone out to buy milk for a daughter born on July 19 – named after the daughter who was killed in 2008, Sana Nasri Khan – when during the wee hours of the night five unidentified Muslim extremists began kicking and pounding on the door.

“When my wife asked who they were, they replied, ‘We have learned that you have disgraced Islam by recanting, therefore we will set your house on fire,” Khan told Compass. “When my wife told them that I was not at home, they left a letter threatening to torch the house and kill my whole family and ordered me to recant Christianity and embrace Islam.”

Khan had sold some of his clothes at a pawnshop in order to buy milk for the baby, as he has been financially supporting six Christian families from his congregation who are on a Muslim extremist hit list. Islamic militants have cordoned off parts of Kalupura, patrolling the area to find and kill the families of Allah Rakha Masih, Boota Masih, Khalid Rehmat, Murad Masih Gill, Tariq Murad Gill and Rashid Masih.

Often feeding her 5-month-old daughter water mixed with salt and sugar instead of milk or other supplements, Aster Nasri Khan said she was ready to die of starvation for the sake of Jesus and His church. Before her beaten husband was found, she said she had heard from neighbors that some Muslim men had left him unconscious on a roadside, thinking he was dead.

The Rev. Arif Masih of Power of the Healing God’s Church in Islamabad told Compass that he was stunned to find Khan unconscious in a pool of blood on the roadside. Saying he couldn’t go to police or a hospital out of fear that Muslims would level apostasy charges against Khan, Masih said he took him to the nearby private clinic of Dr. Naeem Iqbal Masih. Khan received medical treatment there while remaining unconscious for almost four hours, Masih said.  

Born into a Muslim family, Khan had joined the now-defunct Islamic militant group Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, which later emerged as Jaish-e-Muhammad, fighting with them for eight and half years in Kashmir and Afghanistan.

While fighting in Afghanistan’s civil war in 2000, he said, he found a New Testament lying on the battlefield. He immediately threw it away, but a divine voice seemed to be extending an invitation to him, he said. When he later embraced Christ, he began preaching and studying – ending up with a doctorate in biblical theology from Punjab Theological Seminary in Kasur in 2005.

Upon learning of the Oct. 25 fatwa against him, Khan immediately left Gujrat for Islamabad, he said. He was living in hiding in Chashma near Iqbal Town when Muslims paid his landlord, Munir Masih, to reveal to them that Khan was living at his house as a tenant, he said. A young Christian whose name is withheld for security reasons informed Khan of the danger on Oct. 29, he said.

The young Christian told him that Munir Masih revealed his whereabouts to Allama Atta-Ullah Attari, a member of Dawat-e-Islami.

Khan said he confided to Christian friends about the dangers before him, and they devised a plan to hide his family in Bara Koh, a small town near Islamabad.

“But as I had sold and spent everything to help out Kalupura Christians,” he said, “I was penniless and therefore failed to move on and rent a house there.”

Report from Compass Direct News

INDIA: NEWS BRIEFS

Recent Incidents of Persecution

Karnataka, December 19 (Compass Direct News) – Hindu extremists from the Bajrang Dal on Dec. 14 attacked a Christmas program of Christian social organization Helping Hands and accused the director of forcible conversion in Bangarapet, Kolar. The intolerant Hindus disrupted the program of the organization, which helps rural women and children, and accused Samuel Moses of trying to forcibly convert women and children, reported the Evangelical Fellowship of India. The extremists burned gospel literature and took Moses and his accountant to the Bangarapet police station. The Christians were detained in the police station for about nine hours, with the incident publicized on local broadcast and print media. The Christians were later released without charges. Police Inspector Chinnana Swami told Compass that the Christians were detained for questioning but police found no forcible conversion and the case has been closed.

Karnataka – Hindu extremists allegedly belonging to the Hindu extremist Rakshane Vedike on Dec. 8 attacked a pastor, accusing him of forceful conversion in Ibrahim Pura, Bellary. The Global Council of Indian Christians reported that at 5 p.m Assembly of God pastor N. Satyam and another Christian were on their way home from a prayer meeting organized by convert Krishna Veni when a mob of about 25 extremists led by Sidesh Mallesh and Mahendra Bhatt dragged the Christians from an auto-rickshaw, cursed them in foul language, beat them and falsely accused the pastor of forceful conversion. The Evangelical Fellowship of India (EFI) reported that police arrived and took the Christians to the police station, where about 100 Christians later protested against the violence. The Christians were released without charges at 11:30 p.m., and the matter was settled peacefully between the two parties, EFI reported.

Andhra Pradesh – Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) extremists from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh on Dec. 7 beat a pastor in Bhainsa Mandal, Adilabad district. The Global Council of Indian Christians reported that at about 7 p.m. Bethel Church pastor Prabhu Das and church members identified only as Mark and Raju were on their way back from a prayer meeting when nearly 25 Hindu extremists armed with wooden batons surrounded them and angrily questioned them about their reason for coming to the village. The extremists repeatedly slapped Das and Mark and snatched Raju’s bag, which contained a Bible, and the latter fled. A local pastor told Compass that on identifying Das as pastor, the extremists falsely accused him of forcible conversion and beat him up with their batons on his hands and legs. Raju phoned a Christian who came with a vehicle and took Das to a private nursing home for treatment for a fracture in his left hand. Later he was admitted to the Adilabad Government Hospital. Das has declined to file a First Information Report, saying he has forgiven his attackers. A local pastor told Compass that on Dec. 12, the Pastors’ Fellowship of Adilabad presented a memorandum to the superintendent of police requesting security for pastors of the district.

Madhya Pradesh – Nearly 20 Hindu extremists from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh on Dec. 5 beat pastors Pangala Bhai and Limba Bhai in Palasapara village in Meghasah Tehsil. The Evangelical Fellowship of India (EFI) reported that at about 3 p.m. extremists surrounded Pangala and Lima of Indian Evangelical Team as they were returning home from a prayer meeting. Using foul, abusive language, the extremists falsely accused them of forceful conversion, beat them and robbed a mobile phone and cash. The village council chief took the injured pastors to a private hospital. The pastors have not filed a case against the attackers, saying they have decided to forgive them, EFI reported.

Punjab – Hindu extremists from the Bajrang Dal on Dec. 2 attacked two Operation Mobilization (OM) workers in Sangur. The Evangelical Fellowship of India reported that the extremists attacked Pani Garhi and Kiran Bhai as they were distributing gospel tracts in the area. OM men’s team leader Imocha Naorem told Compass that the extremists took the Christians to the police station after verbally abusing and slapping them. Police refused to file a complaint but gave a stern warning to the extremists not to disturb the Christians again.

Karnataka – Hindu extremists on Nov. 26 accused pastor Vantakesh Nayak of forceful conversion and beat him along with four other Christians in Davanagere. The All India Christian Council reported that the Christians had gone to a nearby village to open up a new shop with prayer when the extremists stormed in and assaulted them, tearing their shirts. The intolerant Hindus filed a police complaint of forceful conversion against the pastor in Honnalli police station. Investigating Officer Jai Laxman told Compass that the Christians were detained only as a preventative measure, that they have been released and that the case is closed.

Andhra Pradesh – Hindu extremists on Nov. 25 attacked a pastor, accused him of forceful conversion and vandalized his vehicle in Devarakonda, Telangana. The Global Council of Indian Christians reported that pastor Srinivas Naik and two Christians, K. Raju and one identified only as Naresh, were screening the Jesus film at DNT government hostel with prior permission of the hostel warden. As the Christian team was about to leave the extremists surrounded them and pulled them down from their vehicle. The police arrived at the scene and managed to stop the extremists from burning the vehicle. The team members were arrested under Section 295(A) of the Indian penal code for “hurting religious feelings” and were later released on bail.

Madhya Pradesh – Hindu extremists on Nov. 24 attacked and abducted a pastor in Mandla district. Gospel for Asia (GFA) missionary pastor Nandiram Chauhan had gone to conduct a prayer service in the morning when 10 Hindu extremists on bikes began harassing him, a GFA representative told Compass. They snatched the pastor’s bicycle from him, as well as his mobile phone and gospel tracts, forced him onto one of their bikes and headed towards a forest where about 150 extremists waited. They locked him in the room of a structure there. At 8 p.m. about 20 Hindu extremists entered his room and assaulted him, and he was dragged to a waiting jeep. After asking permission to relieve himself, he fled, managing to escape to a Christian’s home in a nearby village with the attackers in hot pursuit. Christians escorted him to his village. A GFA representative told Compass that a police complaint has been filed, and officers assured the Christians that stringent action would be taken against the culprits. At press time, no arrests had been made.

Orissa – Orissa police on Nov. 22 arrested three Christians on false charges of “attempting to rape and murder” in Guntaput, Koraput district. The Evangelical Fellowship of India (EFI) reported that the coordinator of Good Shepherd Community Church (GSCC), the Rev. Abiram Singh, said that a worker from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh identified only as Nanda filed a police complaint against three believers from GSCC, Rajat Kuldip, Saliman Kondhpan and Gokul Kondhpan, for “attempting to rape and murder” a tribal woman. The woman, Radha Pangi, told Rev. Singh she had not been attacked and had no idea why the Christians were accused. The Christians were released on bail on Nov. 28. Police are now searching for another three Christians from the GSCC for questioning, according to EFI.

Karnataka – Police disrupted a Sunday worship service on Nov. 2 in Bagalkot, halted it and warned a pastor not to conduct future services, according to the Christian Legal Association. Officers told pastor Basappa Adapur of Shalom Full Gospel Association not to conduct another worship meeting without obtaining prior permission from the Deputy Commissioner. Hindu nationalists in the area have been known to harm Christians who did not inform police that they were meeting for worship, according to police, so for their own security Christians must get permission to meet. Police also collected information on the 25 Christians attending the church.

Report from Compass Direct News