Newspoll: Labor gains to lead 53-47


Adrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne

Tuesday’s Newspoll, conducted 3-6 November from a sample of 1850, had Labor leading 53-47, a one point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 39% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (up 1) and 10% for the Greens (steady).

30% were satisfied with Turnbull’s performance (up 1), and 58% were dissatisfied (also up 1), for a net approval of -28. It is the first time since the election that Turnbull’s net approval has not declined in Newspoll. Shorten’s net approval was an unchanged -15.

To the extent that Donald Trump’s shock victory has an effect on Australian politics, it will probably help One Nation, the most Trump-like party in Australia. Most supporters of the three established parties will not change their votes, but One Nation could consolidate some of the Others vote.

Last week’s Essential, conducted over two weeks from a sample of 1800, also had Labor leading 53-47 from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 6% and Nick Xenophon Team 3%. Turnbull’s net approval was -8, down from -3 in October. Shorten’s net approval was -9, down from -3.

23% thought the Coalition government was too tough on asylum seekers, 24% too soft and 37% about right; in August, these percentages were respectively 21%, 29% and 31%. 56% approved of the government’s proposed legislation to ban asylum seekers from ever coming to Australia, and 29% disapproved.

59% would have supported Clinton if they could vote, with 19% supporting Trump. In June, respondents favoured Clinton 71-15; the 12 point drop for Clinton was driven mainly by Coalition and Other voters. Australian voters far preferred Clinton to handle important issues. 52% thought that US influence in the world is becoming weaker, with 19% for stronger.

An Ipsos online panel poll of 921 respondents, conducted Thursday and Friday, found that 66% of Australians opposed Trump’s election as US President. Similar percentages (58-63%) thought he would be bad for the US, the world economy, the Australian economy, world security and relations between the US and Australia. 45% thought the Coalition would be most capable of managing Australia’s relationship with the US under Trump, with 22% selecting Labor and 14% One Nation.

NSW by-elections: huge swing against Nats in Orange

Yesterday, by-elections were held in the NSW lower house seats of Orange (National-held), Wollongong (Labor-held) and Canterbury (Labor-held). In Orange and Canterbury, the sitting members successfully contested Federal seats at the recent election, while Noreen Hay resigned as Wollongong member after many scandals.

In Orange, the Nationals won 31.1%, down a massive 34.5 points from the 2015 election. Perhaps reflecting a Trump surge, the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers were second with 24.3%, followed by Labor at 18.6% (down 4.7). The rest of the vote mainly went to Independents with the Greens at 5.8%.

There is no preference count yet for the Nationals vs Shooters contest. NSW uses optional preferential voting, which will make it harder for the Shooters. However, unless the Nationals can greatly extend their lead on the remaining votes, the Shooters are likely to win their first ever single member electorate.

The Orange result has been blamed on the proposed greyhound racing ban that has now been withdrawn, and on forced council amalgamations.

The other two by-elections were less dramatic. In Wollongong, Labor defeated Independent Gordon Bradbery 58-42, a one point swing to the Independent who had contested the 2015 election. In Canterbury, Labor was opposed by only the Greens and Christian Democrats, and romped home with 66% of the primary vote.

WA Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Western Australian election will be held in four months on 11 March 2017. A WA Newspoll, conducted from August to October with a sample of 860, has Labor leading by 52-48, a 2 point gain for the Liberal/Nationals since the March to May WA Newspoll.

Primary votes are 41% for Labor (down 1), 40% for the combined Liberals and Nationals (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down 2). These primary vote changes imply that the 2 point two party change is partly a result of rounding.

Despite the improvement on voting intentions, Premier Colin Barnett’s ratings slumped. His satisfied rating was down 3 to 28% and his dissatisfied rating up 3 to 61%, for a net approval of -33. Opposition leader Mark McGowan’s net approval fell 10 points, but he is still at a +13 net rating.

This poll is in agreement with a recent ReachTEL poll that also had Labor ahead 52-48. The ReachTEL poll was conducted on 27 October, so it is much more recent and useful than this Newspoll, conducted over three months.

Queensland Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor

A Queensland Galaxy poll has Labor leading by 51-49, a one point gain for Labor since August. Primary votes are 37% for the Liberal Nationals (down 1), 35% for Labor (up 2), 16% for One Nation (steady) and 8% for the Greens (steady). Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s approval was down two to 44% and her disapproval was up eight to 39%, for a net approval of +5. I expect this poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of about 900.

US Presidential election: Clinton won popular vote

Donald Trump will be the next US President after winning the decisive Electoral College by a likely 306-232 margin. However, according to Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman, Hillary Clinton is currently leading in the national popular vote by 47.7% to 47.1%, and that lead is certain to increase as most of the remaining votes are from strong Democratic territory. Clinton is likely to win the popular vote by about 2%.

The popular vote/Electoral College discrepancy occurred because Clinton performed much worse in the swing states than overall. The swing states had a higher proportion of non-university educated whites than nationally, and this group was easily Trump’s best demographic. This will be the fifth time in US history that the popular vote winner has not won the Presidency; 2000 was the most recent occurrence.

My last two articles on the US election for Election Watch may help to understand why this result happened. This tweet below from New York Times analyst Nate Cohn shows how rural America swung big to Trump (red is the Republicans’ colour).

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The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Labor easily wins NT election


Adrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne

At the 2012 Northern Territory election, the Country Liberal Party (CLP) won 16 of 25 seats, to 8 for Labor and 1 Independent. During a chaotic term, 4 CLP and 1 Labor members defected to sit as Independents, so the pre-election parliamentary numbers were 12 CLP, 7 Labor and 6 Independents.

At yesterday’s NT election, the ABC is calling 15 of 25 seats for Labor, 1 for the CLP and 3 for Independents, with 6 in some doubt. The ABC’s prediction is 18 Labor, 3 CLP and 4 Independents. Even if Labor loses all doubtful seats, they would still have a clear majority.

Two of the doubtful seats – Blain and Nhulunbuy – are cases where the incorrect final two candidates were selected on election night. The electoral commission will need to redo the two candidate count in those seats. Former chief minister Terry Mills, who was deposed by Adam Giles in the last term, will need a strong flow of preferences from the CLP in Blain.

Giles himself is in trouble in his own seat of Braitling, trailing Labor by 21 votes on a swing of almost 20 points. Former Labor leader Delia Lawrie is likely to hold her seat of Karama as an Independent; she leads by 51.2-48.8.

Overall primary votes were 43.1% for Labor (up 6.6), 31.7% for the CLP (down 18.9), 3.5% for the new 1 Territory Party, 2.8% for the Greens (down 0.5) and 18.9% for all Others (up 9.3). The Others were mostly Independents. The Poll Bludger has a breakdown of the votes and seats for each region.

There are still some booths that have not yet been added to counts, particularly in remote seats. However, most electorates are reporting postal counts, so it is unlikely that the CLP’s position will improve post-election, in the way the Federal Coalition’s position improved. Counting will resume tomorrow morning.

At this election, the voting system was changed to optional preferential voting; previous NT elections used compulsory preferential voting. However, this change appears to have helped Labor. In Braitling, Labor trails by 10.4% on primary votes, but leads by 0.4% after preferences. It is likely that minor party voters who were hostile to the CLP put the CLP last, while those who were better disposed to the CLP followed the CLP’s advice, and just voted “1”.

Shock NSW ReachTEL has a 50-50 tie

At the March 2015 NSW election, the Coalition won 45.6% of the primary vote, with 34.1% for Labor and 10.3% for the Greens. The Coalition won the two party vote 54.3-45.7.

The first ReachTEL poll since the election, conducted Thursday night from a sample of 1610, has the Coalition and Labor tied at 50-50. Excluding the 8.1% undecided from the primary votes gives 42.9% for the Coalition (down 2.7 since the election), 38.0% for Labor (up 3.9) and 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.6).

Opposition leader Luke Foley led Premier Mike Baird 51-49 as better Premier, but ReachTEL’s forced choice better PM/Premier question removes the lean towards the incumbent that other polls exhibit. Despite the Coalition’s slump, voters approved of the ban on greyhound racing by a 51-31 margin.

Polls in most states are very scarce outside election campaigns. The last NSW poll by a credible pollster was the November-December 2015 Newspoll, which had the Coalition ahead by 56-44. This ReachTEL implies that the gloss has come off the Coalition since then.

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Offshore detention: Australians have a right to know what is done in their name


Johan Lidberg, Monash University

How did one of the world’s most-successful multicultural countries made up of refugees and immigrants end up harming children who came to us seeking protection and help? One of the answers to this question is secrecy.

Successive Australian governments, both Labor and Coalition, have dehumanised refugees and kept Australians in the dark about what really goes on in the offshore detention centres on Nauru and Manus Island.

The cornerstone of the strategy is to limit public access to information. The policy started by the Rudd Labor government in 2013 has been put into overdrive by the Abbott and Turnbull Coalition governments.

There are three pillars to the secrecy strategy:

  • outsourcing the centres to other sovereign nations;

  • outsourcing the centres’ operations to private contractors; and

  • imposing a gag on current and former detention staff through the Border Force Act.

Outsourcing detention

Australian journalists have found it very difficult, bordering on practically impossible, to obtain visas to visit Nauru. Applying for a media visa for Nauru comes with an A$8,000 fee – which is non-refundable even if the application is rejected.

The only journalists to be granted visas in the last two years filed stories that did not properly investigate or challenge the Nauruan and Australian governments’ versions of the situation for refugees.

This means the two governments directly and indirectly control who is allowed onto the island to tell the refugees’ stories of how they are treated. This leads to speculation that serves no-one – not the refugees nor the Australian government nor the public.

The second issue with outsourcing refugee processing to another country is that neither Nauru nor Papua New Guinea has Freedom of Information (FOI) laws. This means an important journalistic tool is missing when it comes to seeking information.

This, combined with the poor FOI history of Australia’s Department of Immigration and Border Protection (and its predecessor), which have repeatedly blocked and delayed requests, makes obtaining raw and unspun information about offshore refugee processing a time-consuming and frustrating task.

Outsourcing to private contractors

Wilson Security is contracted to provide security in the offshore centres.

The 2010 amendments to the federal FOI Act significantly strengthened the requirement on government agencies to obtain information from a private contractor when asked to do so.

However, contracting out adds another layer of complexity to using FOI effectively. The practical consequences are longer processing times, delays and the increased possibility of the contractor claiming the information can’t be released due to commercial-in-confidence issues.

The Border Force Act disclosure offence

In July 2015, the Australian Border Force Act came into force. Its controversial disclosure offence section extended the questionable Australian tradition of limiting public servants’ right to public speech and participation in public debate.

The section effectively stops current and former staff, including those from volunteer organisations such as Save the Children, speaking out about conditions in refugee detention centres.

It is nigh-on impossible to see how this gag section can be in the public interest. But it is easy to see how it is in the government’s political interest.

What are the consequences?

The consequence of the fortress of secrecy built on these three pillars is that Australians don’t know what is being done in their name on Nauru and Manus Island.

It also means the refugees are dehumanised. Suffering children and families become numbers instead of human beings.

Every one of the nearly 1,300 refugees currently on Nauru and Manus has heartbreaking and crucial stories to tell. If Australians were allowed to hear and see those stories, the centres would have been closed a long time ago.

If offshore detention is to continue, the Australian government should:

  • stop outsourcing to private contractors. The Department of Immigration and Border Protection should run the centres to allow for proper accountability;

  • be completely transparent about the centres’ operations. Redact personal information, but publish as much as possible, including incident reports;

  • facilitate access to the centres for journalists and members of the public; and

  • scrap the gag section on detention centre staff, current and former, in the Border Force Act.

We don’t need a Senate inquiry or royal commission to figure out what needs to be done. More than enough evidence is available thanks to the Nauru files, former detention centre staff sharing their experiences, and the Australian Human Rights Commission’s report on children in immigration detention. The government must do the decent and right thing by the refugees and the Australian public.

The Conversation

Johan Lidberg, Senior Lecturer, School of Media, Film and Journalism, Monash University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Major rebuff to Malcolm Turnbull as poll result hovers on knife edge


Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

The federal election result is on a knife-edge, with the outcome between a majority Turnbull government and a hung parliament.

Malcolm Turnbull has been delivered a major rebuff and left potentially embattled, with bitter recriminations breaking out in conservative ranks. Even if the Coalition ends up with a majority, Turnbull will have an uphill struggle to manage a party that includes many who are his enemies.

There were immediate calls for a review of the superannuation policy that the government took to the election, which cut back concessions for high-income earners and deeply angered the Liberals’ base.

Liberal ministers blamed Labor’s Medicare scare campaign for turning voters against the Coalition.

Late in the night the swing against the government was 3.6%. The election has seen a high vote for small parties.

Turnbull waited until after midnight to address his supporters, declaring: “I can report that based on the advice I have from the party officials, we can have every confidence that we will form a Coalition majority government in the next parliament”. In his speech, he did not accept any blame for the bad result or suggest he would make any changes as a result.

Treasurer Scott Morrison said the Coalition was “on the cusp” of being able to claim the 76 seats needed to form majority government.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, who spoke to supporters around 11:30PM, said the outcome might not be known for days but whatever happened one thing was sure: “the Labor Party is back”. He said the Liberals had “lost their mandate”.

Labor’s Senate leader, Penny Wong, said there was “too much on the table to call it tonight”.

The ABC said that with more than 70% of votes counted, the Coalition was on track to win 72 seats, and Labor set to claim 66, with five crossbenchers including one Green, and seven seats in doubt.

An unanticipated big swing in Tasmania has cost the Liberals Bass, Braddon and Lyons. Labor has won Eden-Monaro (NSW), Macarthur (NSW), and the notional Liberal seat of Burt in Western Australia.

In Queensland, Assistant Innovation Minister Wyatt Roy appears to have lost Longman and the Liberals may lose Herbert. The Sydney seat of Lindsay is likely to fall, as is Macquarie. In the Northern Territory, Solomon is set to fall.

Nick Xenophon’s Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) candidate Rebekha Sharkie has taken Mayo from former minister Jamie Briggs, who had to quit the frontbench after an incident in a Hong Kong bar. Briggs tweeted “After a tough fight tonight hasn’t been our night”.

The Liberals could win the Victorian Labor seat of Chisholm. The Labor-Green contest in Batman is neck and neck.

Despite Turnbull calling the double dissolution to clear out small players in the Senate, the new Senate will contain a plethora of micro players. They will include three South Australian senators from NXT. Pauline Hanson has been elected to a Senate seat in Queensland. Broadcaster Derryn Hinch has claimed a Victorian Senate seat. Independent Jacqui Lambie has been returned in Tasmania.

In his speech Turnbull took on criticism, already being aired, that he should not have called a double dissolution, saying this had not been a political tactic but had been driven by the “need to restore the rule of law to the construction industry”.

Even if Turnbull wins majority government he may not have the numbers to get the industrial relations bills, which were the trigger for the double dissolution, through a joint sitting.

The backlash in conservative ranks erupted immediately.

Senator Cory Bernardi said in a tweet to Liberal pollster Mark Textor:

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Broadcaster Alan Jones clashed with one of Turnbull’s numbers men, senator James McGrath, on the Network Seven panel. “There were a lot of bed-wetters in the Liberal Party and you seemed to be the captain of the bed-wetters,” Jones said. McGrath hit back, saying Jones was “not a friend” of the Coalition.

Tony Abbott’s former chief-of-staff Peta Credlin and Attorney-General George Brandis had a spat on the Sky panel over the government’s superannuation changes. Credlin said the changes would not go through the Coalition partyroom in their present form; Brandis retorted she was not in the partyroom.

Tasmanian senator Eric Abetz said there had been strident criticism in emails to his office of the superannuation changes. “I for one will be advocating we reconsider aspects of it.”

Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger said the party’s base was “furious” with the superannuation policy. “I certainly hope the partyroom would look at this issue.”

Conservative commentator Andrew Bolt called for Turnbull to quit. “You have been a disaster. You betrayed Tony Abbott and then led the party to humiliation, stripped of both values and honour. Resign.”

Morrison, asked if Abbott could have won the election, replied “highly unlikely”.

Roy and Peter Hendy, member for Eden-Monaro, were both heavily involved in the Turnbull coup.

Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop said “undoubtedly” the Medicare scare campaign had been an important factor in the result. She said a number of people on election day had raised Medicare with her at polling booths.

Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said Labor’s Medicare’s scare was more effective than the government had thought during the campaign. “No doubt the absolute lie Labor was running on Medicare was effective.”

Turnbull lashed out over the Medicare scare, saying “the Labor Party ran some of the most systematic, well-funded lies ever peddled in Australia”.

He said that “no doubt” the police would investigate last minute text messages to voters that said they came from Medicare.

Abetz said the “three amigos” in Bass, Braddon and Lyons had been swamped by the Medicare campaign.

Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce held New England from independent challenger Tony Windsor. Independent Cathy McGowan retained Indi. The Nationals have taken Murray from the Liberals, and headed off a challenge in Cowper from independent Rob Oakeshott.

The poll has seen the first Indigenous woman elected to the House of Representatives – Linda Burney in the NSW seat of Barton.

The pre-poll count continued to 2AM. There will be no more counting until Tuesday.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.